Actualités

Avril 2023
Banque Mondiale / World Bank (44 pages).

The recovery of private sector investments in infrastructure (also called private participation in infrastructure [PPI]), which began after the COVID-19 pandemic, has continued into 2022. In total, private sector investment commitments reached US$91.7 billion across 263 projects, equivalent to 0.25 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) of all low- and middle-income countries. This represents a continued recovery towards pre-pandemic levels, with total commitments in 2022 surpassing the previous five-year average (2017-2021) by 4 percent.
Nevertheless, the total number of PPI projects in the region has declined to 263, indicating a reduction from the pre-pandemic level of 300 projects.
Most regions—except for Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) — recorded significant improvements in PPI compared to the previous year. Although SSA saw relatively lower PPI investment commitments compared to 2021, it achieved a noteworthy milestone of having 19 countries with PPI investment transactions, the highest recorded number in the database’s history.

Avril 2023
Arcadis (36 pages).

The report looks back at another highly disruptive year across global construction markets. The high construction price inflation that we first reported in 2021 broke out across most parts of the global economy in 2022. Even as domestic inflation hit double figures, construction price rises accelerated further, prompted by a unique combination of strong demand, supply chain disruption, tight labor markets and soaring energy costs.

Mars 2023
European PPP Expertise Centre -EPEC- (20 pages).

45 public-private partnership transactions reached financial close for an aggregate value of €9.8 billion. In value terms, the market increased by 17% compared to 2021. The number of projects increased by 2% compared to 2021.
The most active market was France both in terms of value and number of projects. 15 countries closed at least one public-private partnership project compared to 14 in 2021. Transport was the largest sector both in terms of value and number of projects.

Mars 2023
BCG / EDHECInfra (36 pages).

Infrastructure investments are increasingly becoming mainstream. They have emerged as one of the most attractive alternative investments today because data shows that they can withstand inflationary pressures and demand fluctuations better than other kinds of investments can. Although assets under management in the infrastructure industry were only around $0.3 trillion in 2015, they increased over the next seven years to reach $1.1 trillion in 2022—a growth rate of 21%, almost twice the 11% at which investments in all alternative assets grew. The large infrastructure funds got bigger, too; the ten largest funds that closed in 2022 raised $36 billion more that year than in 2021.
As governments try to rebuild the world’s infrastructure with an eye toward ensuring a carbon-neutral world, the infrastructure investments market will continue to expand. Several governments have sought to create environments more conducive to private sector investment in infrastructure businesses, especially since public finances are limited. In the US, the Infrastructure Investment Jobs Act (IIJA) and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), enacted in 2021 and 2022, respectively, will boost infrastructure development. In the EU, the RepowerEU strategy will reduce the region’s dependence on fossil fuels. Our studies indicate, however, that the recent rise in infrastructure asset prices—along with the global economic uncertainty and changes in interest rate regimes—has introduced an element of volatility into the market.
The BCG-EDHECinfra study of the risks facing infrastructure investors and the returns that their investments generated found that asset owners did better than asset managers in 2022, and that infrastructure investors in Australia and New Zealand were the best performers geographically. Specialized infrastructure fund managers generated higher returns than multi-asset managers did last year, and UK pension funds topped North American pension funds, global insurers, and sovereign wealth funds.
The study also found that success in the current environment requires fresh approaches to investing and value creation. In fact, an analysis of the drivers of infrastructure investment performance over the past three years indicates that investors’ yields came primarily from declining debt and rising price-earnings multiples and that their performance on operational value creation was, at best, mixed.
Going forward, infrastructure funds will invest more in larger projects, which will take longer to evaluate, especially since there is currently a dearth of megaprojects. The larger funds will invest through development platforms, which channel public and private funds into projects that aren’t commercially viable. And the smaller funds will specialize by geography or sector. According to a survey that BCG conducted last year, infrastructure asset managers will continue to increase their investments in digital businesses, such as network utilities and data
infrastructure, and in sustainable businesses, such as renewable energy. This sector contains both older segments, such as solar power and wind energy, and newer ones, such as hydrogen, which is turning into a lucrative investment opportunity.
In 2021, demand for hydrogen was around 94 million tons, most of it in the form of gray hydrogen, which is produced from methane or natural gas and therefore isn’t environmentally friendly. But by 2050, demand for low-carbon hydrogen will approach 350 million tons per annum (mtpa) under a 2°C global warming scenario or 530 mtpa under a 1.5°C scenario. Governments and companies will have to invest approximately $6 trillion to $12 trillion between 2025 and 2050 to produce and transport enough low-carbon hydrogen to meet demand, according to BCG’s calculations.
Although investment opportunities will extend across the hydrogen value chain—from feedstock development and generation to hydrogen transportation and storage—$300 billion to $700 billion of that amount must be deployed soon, from 2025 to 2030. At each link in the value chain, the need for capital will vary by geography, with regional economic policies influencing infrastructure investors’ choices. Crucially, four novel strategies can help infrastructure investors gain first-mover advantage in the hydrogen industry.

Mars 2023
Banque Mondiale / World Bank (132 pages).

This Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA2) is part of an ongoing effort—undertaken jointly by the World Bank, the Government of Ukraine, the European Commission, and the United Nations, and supported by other partners—to take stock of Ukraine’s damage and losses from Russia’s invasion.
Just as importantly, it aims to assess the scale of economic and social needs for Ukraine’s survival during the war and its prospering afterward.
Considering a full year of war, as of February 24, 2023, direct damage in Ukraine has reached over US$135 billion, with housing, transport, energy, and commerce and industry the most affected sectors. Damage is concentrated in the frontline oblasts, particularly Donetska, Kharkivska, Luhanska, Zaporizka, Khersonska, Mykolaivska, and in oblasts that were brought back under government control, such as Kyivska and Chernihivska. Disruptions to economic flows and production, as well as additional expenses associated with the war, are collectively measured as losses and amount to some US$290 billion. Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 29.2 percent in 2022, and poverty increased from 5.5 percent to 24.1 percent in 2022 (based on the poverty line of US$6.85 per person per day).
Reconstruction and recovery needs, as of February 24, 2023, are estimated at about US$411 billion. Integrated into these needs are critical steps toward becoming a modern, low-carbon, disaster- and climate-resilient country that has aligned with European Union policies and standards in view of being ready to join the European Union, and where the population’s vulnerabilities are addressed and people live in prosperity. While the financing envelope is overwhelming, experience from other countries shows that a phased approach to reconstruction is critical.
The report also estimates the implementation priorities for 2023 at around US$14 billion. These are focused on the most urgent needs, including restoration of energy, housing, critical and social infrastructure, basic services for the most vulnerable, explosive hazard management, and private sector development. Around US$9 billion in direct government expenditure will lay the groundwork for a safe, prioritized, achievable, and efficient reconstruction and recovery. This will be complemented by investments by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and support to sustain and catalyze the private sector, including de-risking investment and trade. While the government has already taken steps to meet some of these needs, this report identifies a need for an additional US$11 billion in financing, including around US$6 billion in furtherfunding of the government budget and close to US$5 billion to facilitate critical investments by SOEs and the private sector.

Février 2023
Banque Asiatique de Développement -BASD- / Asian Development Bank (82 pages).

This report analyzes how the pandemic has impacted investment in infrastructure in Southeast Asia and assesses how infrastructure development can help drive economic recovery and support sustainable growth.

Février 2023
European PPP Expertise Centre (30 pages).

This report covers a wide range of PPP transactions (e.g. design-build-finance-operate, designbuild-finance-maintain, concession arrangements which feature a construction element, the
provision of a public service and risk sharing between the public and private sector, and can include regulated assets), regardless of the type of financing provided by the EIB (e.g. project finance, sovereign lending). Portfolio loans to small PPP projects and investments in equity PPP funds are not listed in this report.

Février 2023
Banque Mondiale / World Bank (179 pages).

Developing countries face massive infrastructure needs, but public spending on infrastructure is inadequate, and public investment has been declining in recent years. Rising debt levels and tightening fiscal and monetary conditions are putting further pressure on the funds available for infrastructure, heightening the importance of increasing the efficiency of infrastructure spending. Off the Books: Understanding and Mitigating the Fiscal Risks of Infrastructure shows that however governments deliver infrastructure—through direct public provision, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), or public-private partnerships (PPPs), the risk of fiscal surprises is high in both good times and bad. As a result, infrastructure service delivery often ends up costing significantly more than expected, eroding limited fiscal space for productive spending. This book makes a unique contribution by quantifying the magnitude and prevalence of fiscal risks from electricity and transport infrastructure and identifying their root causes across a range of low- and middle-income countries. Drawing on important new sources of evidence and compiling many others, the analysis sheds light on how much is at stake in the good governance of infrastructure sectors. It allows policy makers to weigh the magnitudes of different types of risks and examine how they vary across contexts. Off the Books shows how a deeper understanding of the fiscal risks of infrastructure can help policy makers target reforms to areas where they can be expected to have the greatest impact. It lays out a reform agenda for mitigating the fiscal risks associated with infrastructure based on building government capacity; adopting integrated public investment management and integrated fiscal risk management; improving fiscal and corporate governance of SOEs; and ensuring robust PPP preparation, procurement, and contract management. The book will be of enormous value to policy makers, practitioners, and academics who have an interest in infrastructure and fiscal policy.

Février 2023
Global Infrastructure Hub (93 pages). 

Infrastructure Monitor is the Global Infrastructure Hub’s (GI Hub) flagship report, produced annually. It identifies and examines global trends in private investment in infrastructure.
The data insights included in the report help governments, investors, and the broader infrastructure industry steer infrastructure investment where it is needed.
As a data resource serving the G20, this report is also used to monitor progress toward establishing infrastructure as an asset class, an objective set by the G20 in 2018. Infrastructure Monitor insights address key priorities of the G20 and provide policymakers with global benchmarks.
Data used and analysed in the Infrastructure Monitor 2022 report were gathered from our partners EDHECinfra and GRESB, and we received data and support from MSCI and Moody’s. This report was first released in October 2022, covering trends in: i) private investment in infrastructure projects; ii) infrastructure investment performance; iii) availability of private capital for infrastructure; and iv) the role of multilateral development banks in private investment in infrastructure. An additional section on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors in infrastructure investment will be released shortly after the initial release, to allow for the inclusion of the most current data.

Janvier 2023
WAPPP (World Association of PPP Units & Professionals) / InfraPPP (16 pages).

Following on from Q3, geopolitical challenges and market uncertainty continue to be important considerations for investors deciding how and where to deploy infrastructure capital in Q4.
Persistent inflationary pressure, the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war, aggressive monetary tightening in the US and EU, and the escalating European energy crisis, which has now been exacerbated by an OPEC production cut, all point to a difficult outlook for infrastructure investment.
This has also taken a toll on the number of PPP deals, which declined from 274 in Q3 to 217 in Q4. The number of projects in pre-financial close status has also decreased from 213 to 189. On a positive note, the number of open PPP tenders remains high, with 89 tenders in the current quarter, down slightly from 93 tenders in Q3.

Décembre 2022
OCDE (48 pages).

Infrastructure is vital for supporting economic growth, enhancing prosperity and well-being. G7 nations and other partnerships have committed to quality and sustainable infrastructure investments based on high standards and shared values to mobilise public and private investment. Unfortunately, infrastructure remains highly exposed to corruption and other irregular practices and lacks sufficient accountability. New and innovative approaches to tackle corruption are needed to address these challenges. This policy paper focuses on collective action and multi-stakeholder non-judicial grievance mechanisms to support early detection, prevention, and reporting of corruption. It highlights three mechanisms, namely, the National Contact Point for Responsible Business Conduct, the High Level Reporting Mechanism, and the Integrity Pact, which are well-suited to addressing corruption risks across the infrastructure lifecycle. As countries increase infrastructure investment and look to attract private financing, there is an opportunity to harness multi-stakeholder solutions that address corruption, de-risk projects and ensure finance meets its intended purpose.