Banque Mondiale (244 pages).
As of June 1, 2022, direct damage has reached over US$97 billion, with housing, transport, and commerce and industry being the most affected sectors. Damage is concentrated in the frontline oblasts (74 percent), particularly Donetska, Luhanska, Kharkivska, and Zaporizka, and in oblasts that were brought back under government control (22 percent) such as Kyivska and Chernihivska. Disruptions to economic flows and production, as well as additional expenses associated with the war, are collectively measured as losses and amount to some US$252 billion. Ukraine’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank by 15.1 percent year over year in the first quarter of 2022, and poverty is expected to increase from 2 to 21 percent (based on the poverty line of US$5.5 per person per day).
Reconstruction and recovery needs, as of June 1, are estimated at about US$349 billion, which is more than 1.6 times the GDP of Ukraine in 2021. Integrated into these needs are critical steps toward becoming a modern, low-carbon, disaster- and climate-resilient, and inclusive country that is more closely aligned with European Union standards. While the financing envelope is overwhelming, experience from other countries shows that reconstruction spans many years and a phased approach to reconstruction is critical. The report also details some US$105 billion needed in the immediate and short term to address the most urgent needs, including social infrastructure (such as schools and hospitals, especially in areas brought back under government control), preparation for the upcoming winter through winterization and restoration of heating and energy to homes, urgent repairs, gas purchases, support to agriculture and social protection, and restoration of vital transport routes. These actions will lay the groundwork for a safe, prioritized, and efficient reconstruction and recovery.