Août 2026
Atradius (10 pages).
After increasing 1.4% last year we expect global construction output to grow by the same amount in 2026, one percentage point lower than our forecast early this year. Our lowered forecast is due to a more sluggish sector performance in both China and the US, weighing on the global construction outlook. Growth in advanced economies is predicted to increase by 0.8%, while building activity in emerging markets will rise by 2.8%.
The domestic nature of the construction market and relatively regionalised supply chains mean that construction has been more insulated from US tariffs and global trade uncertainty than other industries. However, the conflict in the Gulf and blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has caused energy prices to surge, putting upward pressure on inflation. This has knocked business confidence and is impacting business investment in major construction projects.
Global residential construction output growth is expected to slow down to 0.8% this year. This is because the interest rates in many economies remain elevated and household purchasing power is suffering from the higher energy prices. All this weighs on housing demand. In 2027 a 3.0% rebound is expected, mainly driven by higher activity in Europe and North America. Housing shortages in many developed countries will need to be addressed.
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