Juin 2026
Agence Internationale de l'Energie (187 pages).
Southeast Asia is a very dynamic region that is set to be a major driver of global energy demand growth, but the Middle East conflict has provided a stark wake-up call for the region’s
energy system. Southeast Asia accounts for 9% of the world’s population and 4% of its GDP, but nearly 20% of global energy demand growth to 2035 under today’s policy settings. The disruption in global fuel markets has exposed deep structural vulnerabilities linked to import dependence, limited diversification and concentrated supply routes. Before the crisis, around 60% of Southeast Asia’s imports of crude oil and a third of its imports of gas were coming from the Middle East, while 45% of its oil product supply were dependent on Middle Eastern crude. The resulting price shock is already feeding through to higher energy bills, inflation and mounting economic risk.
The crisis is prompting a reassessment of policy and investment strategies amid a strong prioritisation of energy security. The exploratory scenarios included in this new Outlook, which reflect precrisis policy settings, show that the direction of travel for the region’s energy sector does not adequately address the risks it now faces. A robust, collective response is required.
For the moment, governments are focused on managing the short-term energy impacts of the crisis. Measures include demand-restraint (such as promoting public transport and remote
working), emergency interventions including price controls and subsidies, and efforts to secure alternative fuel supplies. Price controls and subsidies provide some protection for consumers but come at significant fiscal cost – especially when untargeted – and complicate market adjustments to the disruption. Fossil fuel subsidies in the region were around USD 40 billion prior to the crisis and are set to rise sharply in 2026. Looking further ahead, without structural change, the region’s energy import bill could rise sharply from over USD 80 billion in 2024 to around USD 245 billion by 2035, further increasing exposure to global price volatility. By contrast, if the region were to reach its announced climate pledges, the fossil fuel import bill in 2035 would be around half this level. The challenge is therefore not only to manage the near-term impacts of the crisis, but also to accelerate the structural changes needed to reduce exposure to future shocks.
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